Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Mets starter against Reds at plus odds

The top two teams in the American League East begin a key three-game series when the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off on Friday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The Jays (81-59) own the best record in the AL and lead the division by three games over the Yankees (78-62). However, New York still has the best record among the Wild Card teams.

Friday’s pitching matchup features the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler (2-2, 2.61 ERA) against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (8-10, 3.75). Schlittler had an excellent August, going 1-1 with a 1.60 ERA in six starts. Meanwhile, the Jays have lost each of Gausman’s last four outings.

Top sportsbooks have set Schlittler’s total pitcher strikeout prop at 4.5 and Gausman’s at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Schlittler Over 4.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Gausman Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.

However, neither play is one of the model’s top three pitcher strikeout props for Friday. Instead, the model has found one five-star play and two 4.5 star plays, including one that would pay plus money.

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

The Mets lefty has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 26 starts this season, including four of his last five. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that Peterson (8-5, 3.61) has gone Over his pitcher strikeout projection in each of his last seven games when playing on the road and being favored, averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game. On Friday, he faces a Cincinnati team that has a .653 OPS against lefties this season, which ranks 24th in the league. The Reds struck out 11 times in its most recent game on Wednesday against the Blue Jays. 

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 3.5 strikeouts

The 25-year-old Marlins righty will make his first start since May 13. In his five previous starts this season, Bellozo (1-3, 3.91) went Over 2.5 strikeouts twice but averaged 3.2 strikeouts per start. Though the sample size is small, he has had success against Philadelphia’s regulars. The Phillies’ projected lineup for Friday is a combined 5-for-30 against Bellozo. On Thursday, Philadelphia batters struck out a combined 13 times against the Brewers.

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts

This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. Lopez (5-3, 2.82) is set to make his first start since June 3 after which he was sidelined with a muscle strain in his throwing shoulder. Prior to the injury, the Twins righty went Over 3.5 strikeouts in eight of 11 starts. That includes two starts against the Royals in which he struck out six and five batters. In four rehab starts with Triple-A St. Paul, Lopez struck out a total of 18 batters across 16 innings. 

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