Russia’s geopolitical balancing act between Iran and the UAE

Few people would be able to locate the three islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb on a map of the Middle East. Nevertheless, they're at the center of a diplomatic tug-of-war between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, who have claimed sovereignty over them since 1971. That year, the Shah of Iran ordered his army to occupy the three islands, strategically located at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. The move came two days before the proclamation of independence for the Emirates, which until then had been under a British protectorate.

Once the Shah was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran tightened its grip on the three militarily fortified islands, with the presence of the army and Revolutionary Guards. Still, the UAE has not ceased to uphold its rights to the three islands. They recently received unexpected support from Russia, which is highly dependent on Iranian drones in its aggression against Ukraine.

In July, Moscow hosted a "strategic dialogue" with the Gulf Cooperation Council, at the end of which Russia endorsed "the initiative of the UAE and its efforts to reach a peaceful solution" to the dispute over Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs. The Islamic Republic has publicly expressed its irritation at seeing Iran's sovereignty over these three islands challenged in this way. The Russian ambassador in Tehran was summoned by Iran's foreign ministry, which called on Moscow to "correct its position." Iran's claim to "eternal" sovereignty over Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs rules out any form of talks on this subject with the UAE, which makes the Russian development all the more worrying for Tehran.

It may seem surprising that Vladimir Putin should weaken an "alliance" which, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, now unites Moscow and Tehran. Since autumn 2022, Iranian drones have become an essential component of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. While recent weeks have seen an intensification of Russian strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine, Iranian Shahed ("martyr" in Persian) type drones – more accurate than Russian missiles – have once again been wreaking havoc. This was particularly the case at the Romanian border, where tens of thousands of tons of grain were damaged, a very short distance from the territory of a NATO member state. In addition to the hundreds of "kamikaze" drones already delivered by Iran, the Islamic Republic is considering transferring Shahed production to Russian territory.

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