Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Mets starter against Cubs at plus odds

The Detroit Tigers attempt to fend off the hard-charging Cleveland Guardians for first place in the American League Central when the division rivals begin their crucial three-game series at Progressive Field on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET with a stellar pitching matchup. Detroit (85-71) is clinging to the top spot as it has lost six consecutive contests and nine of its last 10 to see its once-massive lead over Cleveland (84-72) dwindle to one game with six remaining.

The Guardians have been hot, winning 15 of 16 contests before having their 10-game winning streak halted with a 6-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins last Sunday. Cleveland, which swept a three-game series at Detroit prior to its four-game set in Minnesota, allowed more than two runs just once during the 10-game streak.

Detroit attempts to end its current slide behind ace Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA), who leads the AL in ERA and ranks second in strikeouts (233). The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been dominant against the Guardians this season, yielding a total of one run while registering 32 strikeouts over 22 innings in three starts. He fanned nine batters across six frames in a no-decision last Thursday against Cleveland.

Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06), who has been equally as impressive in his meetings with Detroit this year. The 26-year-old right-hander has tossed 11 scoreless innings over two turns against the Tigers, recording 17 strikeouts in the process – nine of which came in a victory last Wednesday.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Skubal at 7.5 (Over -133, Under +102) and Williams at 5.5 (Over -141, Under +108). The SportsLine Inside the Lines team’s model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Williams’ Under 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Skubal’s Over 7.5 as a 2.5-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule, as there are three pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4.5 stars, including two that return plus money. Here they are:

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

Cabrera will be returning from a stint on the injured list due to a sprained elbow to make his first start since Aug. 30. The 27-year-old Dominican righty registered only four strikeouts over as many innings against the New York Mets in that outing but racked up six or more in each of his previous five turns, reaching double figures twice. He has gone Over his projected total in four of his last five starts, averaging 6.6 strikeouts in those contests. Cabrera fanned five batters across 6 1/3 frames on June 19 in his only start against the Phillies this season.

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts

Peterson has gone Over his projected strikeout total in 10 of his last 15 starts on the road, recording an average of six per game. The 30-year-old left-hander has registered five or more strikeouts in five of his last eight outings. Peterson last faced the Cubs in 2023, when he fanned five batters over 3 2/3 innings. Chicago’s Ian Happ has struck out five times in eight career at-bats against Peterson.

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

Matthews is looking to bounce back from an outing against the New York Yankees in which he recorded just two strikeouts over three innings. The 25-year-old right-hander fanned five batters in each of his previous two starts. Matthews has gone Over his projected strikeout total in three of his last five outings on the road, averaging six per game during that stretch. 

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