Most Americans in new survey say it is 'likely' there will be a peaceful transfer of power

Most Americans say they believe it is “likely” that there will be a peaceful transfer of power after the upcoming election, according to a new survey.

The YouGov survey, published Friday, found that 55 percent of Americans said the chance that a peaceful transfer of power happens in January is “very” or “somewhat” likely. On the other side, 30 percent said they believe it is “not very likely” or “not likely at all.”

Democrats are more likely than Republicans — 65 percent to 58 percent — to say the transition will be peaceful, per the poll.

If Vice President Harris wins, 53 percent of Americans (61 percent Democrat, 54 percent Republican) said the transition will be peaceful. If former President Trump is declared the winner, 55 percent of respondents (57 percent Democrat, 65 percent Republican) said they believe a peaceful transition is likely, the survey found.

The results come after former President Trump had a rocky exit from the White House following the 2020 election. Trump has consistently argued, without evidence, that President Biden’s win in the last cycle was rigged or stolen.

Trump, the GOP nominee, was impeached for a second time in the House following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, with 10 Republicans joining with Democrats to vote against him.

The former president was indicted in 2023 over his efforts to remain in power following his loss to Biden and for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection — when rioters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to halt the certification of the election results.

The case was stalled as the judge weighed a recent Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity, but special counsel Jack Smith issued new charges last month factoring in the ruling. Earlier this week, Trump’s attorneys sparred with Judge Tanya Chutkan over whether the prosecution should move forward.

Democrats have also argued in recent weeks that the contest between the vice president and Trump, now less than two months away, could be the final democratic election. Harris, who rose to the top of the Democratic ticket following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, seemingly agreed in a podcast interview that aired in April.

“I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say this genuinely could be the last democratic election we ever have,” co-host Angie “Pumps” Sullivan said on the “I’ve Had It” podcast at the time.

“You’re right,” Harris responded.

Biden said earlier this month that he’s “not at all” confident that a transfer of power will be peaceful if Trump loses to Harris in November.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index currently shows the Democratic nominee leading the former president by 3.8 points — 49.5 percent to 45.7 percent.

The YouGov survey was conducted between Aug. 21-25 with 1,083 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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