Exploring the Structure and Impact of a Potential BRICS Currency: Insights from Global Broker Octa

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 17 October 2024 – BRICS countries are due to meet for their 16th annual summit in Kazan, Russia, on 22-24 October. BRICS, a fast-growing intergovernmental organisation currently consisting of nine member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Aran Emirates), has been holding regular summits since 2009. However, many past gatherings have been relatively low-key, as BRICS was considered primarily as a platform for discussion and viewed mainly as a forum for dialogue. Still, there have been notable exceptions, and the organisation has been getting increasingly more vocal lately.

‘It is quite clear that BRICS summits are getting progressively noteworthy, and the organisation can no longer be dismissed as a mere talking shop. This year, the BRICS meeting may prove to be yet another turning point, especially for international finance,’ says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker.

Indeed, the summit in Kazan might potentially produce substantial and meaningful developments with significant and far-reaching implications. Specifically, the creation of a common BRICS currency is expected to be included in the agenda. ‘It [BRICS common currency] is arguably the most ambitious project in international finance since the introduction of euro in 1999,’ says Kar Yong Ang, noting that while rumors about the BRICS currency have been circulating for years, they are now more likely than ever to become reality in the near future.

Still, Octa Broker does not expect a new currency to be fully unveiled during the summit in Kazan but anticipates substantial advancements in its conceptualisation and development. Despite its many benefits, there are significant challenges to overcome before such a currency can be successfully implemented. Furthermore, it is not entirely clear if the BRICS is aiming to create a mere means of exchange between its members to settle transactions in international trade or is building something more grandiose, such as a Monetary Union, akin to Eurozone, with its own central bank. ‘For now, a Monetary Union is certainly out of the question,’ argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘It would require years if not decades of preparation, harmonisation of central banks’ policies and an agreement between states to replace their sovereign currencies with a new, common legal tender. It is not going to happen any time soon.’

Indeed, BRICS does not seem to be aiming for economic convergence. Instead, it wants a technical solution that would enable more efficient cross-border transactions. In other words, BRICS wants to establish a common means of exchange that will be internationally accepted by all the members of the organisation, with transactions settled in an independent BRICS payment system. In fact, BRICS is attempting to solve a very tangible problem. When two countries trade with each other and pay each other in their national currencies (which is the case with some BRICS members), a country which sells more and runs a trade surplus will end up with a surplus of another country’s currency.

Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, notes: ‘BRICS currency will not be a currency per se. It will not take a physical form, so it will be notional in some sense. Its main purpose is to act as a simple technical solution.’ Indeed, at the onset, BRICS common currency will likely be purely digital and will be used exclusively on the BRICS payment platform, called mBridge, supported by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS). BRICS’ mBridge will serve as a gateway for settlements in central bank digital currencies (CBDs). Effectively, it will act as an alternative to today’s most commonly used payment platform, called Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system.

Recent research suggests that a new BRICS currency (or mBridge unit) will be based on gold and the basket of BRICS sovereign currencies with a ratio of 40% to 60%—that is, 40% gold and 60% BRICS currencies. Given that China is the BRIC’s largest economy, it is assumed that the currencies’ basket will be dominated by yuan. However, it remains to be seen whether India will endorse this solution, considering its less-than-ideal relations with China. In any case, if BRICS announces a roadmap to common currency or otherwise makes progress on its establishment, the development of a BRICS currency may affect the U.S. dollar and gold markets.

Indeed, should BRICS succeed in launching a peer-to-peer digital currency platform for cross border payments, the demand for U.S. dollars will almost certainly drop. On the contrary, the demand for gold will rise. In fact, over the past year or so BRICS central banks have been doing exactly that—buying gold and selling U.S. Treasury bonds. No wonder gold has been hitting new highs every month since March 2024 and continues to trade near all-time highs. Overall, a new currency will enable BRICS countries to conduct seamless payments across borders, cut transactionary costs and make them more independent. The broader impact on the global scale is hard to contemplate at this point, but it can potentially be very significant. At no time before has the U.S. dollar hegemony been challenged to such a degree that its very status as a reserve currency becomes questionable. Although BRICS is still far from replacing the greenback, the initiative may introduce new dynamics that could impact the dollar’s position in international trade.
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Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

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