2025 Fantasy Football: Why Saquon Barkley shouldn’t go No. 1 overall, but is still worth drafting in Round 1

Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: Saquon Barkley did not show signs of getting old or worn down. Even in the Super Bowl, his numbers weren’t great because the Chiefs rallied to him effectively, and didn’t miss many tackles, not because of his own skill set. He still was shifty and elusive which, for a back his size, is a big deal.

Besides, the guy just ran for 2,504 yards including the playoffs, more than anyone has rushed for in a season and postseason in NFL history.

He had 17 explosive runs of 20-plus yards, more than anyone in 2024 except Derrick Henry (19). He scored 13 rushing touchdowns, a career-best. He literally backward-hurdled over a defender last year. His athleticism isn’t in question. 

Match that up with the team he plays on and it’s as obvious as breathing: Saquon Barkley is going to get taken with a Round 1 pick.

But if you’re thinking about taking him first overall, or as the first running back off the board, or as even the second or third running back off the board, then you might be asking for trouble.

Barkley’s career-best year was also the busiest year he’s ever had. Last year, over 20 games, Barkley touched the ball 482 times. Worse yet, 436 of those touches were carries. It’s the sixth-most rush attempts by a running back in a single year (regular-season plus postseason) since 1970!

And the track record of running backs coming off a season with that much work isn’t good. These guys are humans, not machines, and they’re susceptible to getting tired and worn down. History shows it.

But it’s not just that history that should concern you. It’s Barkley’s own personal history of wearing down the year after getting ultra-high volume that should make you completely re-think your expectations for the 28-year-old in 2025.

Barkley is the 25th running back to get over 400 carries in a year. Here’s a snapshot of the prior 24 running backs since 1990 who had 400-plus carries in a year and what happened to them the year after:

So if Barkley is going to buck history, he’ll need to do what only 29.2% of running backs who have had 400-plus carries over the last 35 years have done. He would also become the first-ever running back coming off a 400-plus carry season at 28 years old to exceed his prior year’s PPR per-game average since 1990.

But this is NFL history. It’s a warning sign, especially as it pertains to injuries and missing games, but it literally has nothing to do with Barkley himself.

This is why his own history when he’s had a lot of work is what should make you nervous.

As a rookie in 2018, Barkley had 352 touches (261 carries and 91 receptions). He averaged a ridiculous 24.1 PPR points per game, including the playoffs. The following year he played 13 of 16 games, got hurt in the first half of another game early on in the year, and averaged 20.7 touches and 18.8 PPR points per game for a 22% decrease in Fantasy production.

History repeated in 2022 when Barkley amassed 377 touches in 18 games (a then-career-high 313 carries and 64 receptions) and averaged 17.9 PPR points per game. The following year, his last in New York, he played 14 of 17 games and averaged 20.6 touches and 15.9 PPR points per game for a roughly 12% decrease in Fantasy production.

A 10% drop from Barkley’s 2024 would be 19.5 PPR points per game. We’d take that, but it probably wouldn’t be enough to justify the 1.01 pick. A 22% drop from Barkley’s 2024 would be 17.3 PPR points per game. That might get him into the top-five among RBs but certainly wouldn’t justify the first or second overall pick. And any games he misses with injury would obviously be a disaster.

So not only must Barkley buck historical trends, but he has to break the norms of his own personal history when he’s been worn down the season prior.

And yet there’s still more to sweat.

Barkley and Derrick Henry each had over 2,000 rush yards in 2024, postseason included (Barkley had 2,005 yards in the regular season). Before last season there were 13 instances of a running back hitting that mark in the past 35 years, including Henry in 2020.

Of those 13 running backs with over 2,000 rush yards in the regular season and playoffs, only one — Terrell Davis in 1997-98 — averaged more PPR points per game and had more rushing yards the following season. That’s to be expected, though, because getting 2,000 yards is really tough to do.

Among the remaining 12, Henry had more PPR points per game in 2021 than he did in his 2,067 season in 2020, but he only played nine games that his season. That was Henry’s first real injury from playing pro football.

Those other 11 running backs? Two were reasonably close to their PPR production the year prior (Emmitt Smith 1992-93 and Adrian Peterson 2012-13), and nine were way off — at least a 28% drop in PPR per-game average the season after 2,000-plus rush yards including seven of the nine getting 15.1 or fewer PPR points per game.

And, most notably, only two running backs ran for over 1,500 yards the year after 2,000. Davis was obviously one of them, Smith was the other. 

Barkley has never posted back-to-back seasons with even 1,100 rush yards. He’s been over 1,000 rush yards in consecutive campaigns once — his first two years in the league. This is just another big obstacle in his path (and Henry’s too).

It’s another historical data point, but one that further narrows the upside Barkley has: No running back has finished the regular season atop of the PPR per-game mountain two years in a row since Todd Gurley in 2017-18. And the last one before Gurley was Brian Westbrook in 2007-08. That’s once-per-decade type stuff.

That simply stacks the deck against Barkley finishing as the No. 1 RB in PPR again. If you believe it’s unlikely he’ll repeat, then he cannot be your No. 1 running back.

But couldn’t he finish second? Third? Fifth?

His odds of finishing within the top five in PPR points per game are better, but not great.

Going back to 2005-06, there have been 30 instances of a running back finishing top-five in PPR points per game. Sounds like a lot, but it’s not — five players get the chance to do it every year obviously, and so we’re talking about the past 20 years, so it’s 100 chances total. That means 70% of the running backs who have finished top-five failed to do so again the following year. Putting it another way: an average of 1.5 running backs have repeated as top-five Fantasy options on a PPR per-game basis in the last two decades.

Only one did in 2023-24: Alvin Kamara, who needed a slew of receptions to help him get to the top five again. Kamara was one of seven running backs to repeat as a top-five finisher on a PPR per-game basis at 28 years old or older.

And for as legendary as Barkley has been for Fantasy, he has never finished top-five in PPR points per game in back-to-back years. He’s finished back-to-back in the top 10 a couple of times, but not top five.

That’s yet another milestone he would have to accomplish … at 28 years old and after a 438-carry, 2,504-rush-yard season.

New Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo was impressed with Barkley’s condition during OTAs, but he also said he needs to make sure to expand on everything they did last year so as to not be predictable. Speculation suggests more passing, which should include Barkley and perhaps give a little boost to his PPR profile. That’s good.

But that’s not enough to overlook everything else in his past and the past of heavy-usage running backs. Candidly, it feels like the odds are long for Barkley to have another monster season.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t be good for Fantasy — he can be. But it’s in your best interests to reconsider what you should expect from him.

Look, some people fall in love. If nothing in this research changed your mind on Barkley and you’ve gotta have him on your Fantasy team, then you’ll be willing to take him toward the tippy top of your draft, or for more than a third of your Auction budget. Hey, it’s your team, you should take who you want.

And the reality is that if you’re not in love with Barkley, be it because of this research or any other reason, then you’re probably not going to have a chance to get him because someone else in your league will be in love with him and will take him earlier than they should. Nothing you can do about that.

Any running back with 20 PPR per-game potential should be taken over Barkley. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs stand out as runners who could hit that mark. De’Von Achane could too because he catches so many passes. And Christian McCaffrey has it in his profile, though that will crash through the floor if he incurs any ailment between now and Week 1. You could argue Ashton Jeanty and Derrick Henry could get to 20 PPR points per game, but I feel like they’re in the same range as Barkley and I’d just rather take Barkley.

Receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb are also 20-point contenders who could be viewed as safer PPR picks than Barkley.

I’ve settled on Barkley as a top-five running back in my rankings, but right at No. 5. It means I’m probably not going to get him in any of my leagues, which I’m clearly OK with. I don’t want to spend a top pick on someone who has such an uphill battle to be a top Fantasy running back when he’d struggled battling up that hill coming off of prior high-usage seasons. The other history involving past running backs is an obvious concern, too. 

This doesn’t mean I think it’s a mistake to take Barkley in Round 1. I’m going to do it if the opportunity presents itself, but it’s going to have to be closer to 10th overall in PPR (sooner in half- and non-PPR). I just don’t think that’s going to happen very often in my drafts, and I doubt it happens in yours.

Whether you’re all the way in on Barkley or all the way out, at least you now know the historical profiles involved. Barkley broke most of those norms last year, but it’s up to you if you want to bet on him doing so again.  

Source link